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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.