A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
